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However, we will change those patterns.The question is whether we will change those patterns before we radically damage our environment effectively forever.Ive reached out to Adrian Raftery, lead author of the new study, with some of the criticisms enumerated above.Ive also reached out to a few other climate scientists to see what they think, and will update this post if and when I hear back.But, in short, theres still a lot of uncertainty about how much the planet will warm this century.Another study, also published today in Nature Climate Change, suggests were likely only committed to 1.The two new estimates are barely within the error bars of each other.Of course, none of this changes the fact that we need to act quickly to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.So, whats the average person to do about it all If you live in a wealthy nation, heres a list of choices you can make to align your lifestyle with the Paris goal.If enough of us make enough of these choices, itll help drive our economy in the right direction.But ultimately, the decisions thatll lead to the most impactful shiftsthose that cannot be predicted by models based on historical trendsare bigger than us.Theyre policy decisions made at high levels of government.So, you can also vote.Nature Climate ChangeUpdate In an email to Gizmodo, study co author Richard Startz responded to some of the criticisms above, saying that one of the goals of his teams modeling approach was its ability to account for uncertainty.Uncertainty about economic growth over the next 1.The bad news is that the band of likely outcomes range from pretty bad to outright disaster.To the point about the capricious nature of our political will to act, Startz emphasized that his team forecasts the worlds carbon intensity a metric of carbon emissions relative to economic growth will fall as quickly as it has been falling for some time now.It would take a noticeable acceleration or deceleration to make a difference, he said.Perhaps some country will pull out of the Paris accords and cut progress.Or one could imagine a country investing in basic science in a way that brings forth technological breakthroughs at a far more rapid pace than has already been the case. 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